Predicting Leo XIV’s pontificate from a former political scientist who also lived in Rome:
Leo XIV was a surprise. Since I was a child, I’ve had it drilled into me that there would never be an American pope in my lifetime. So, I didn’t think a relatively unknown American cardinal would be a serious contender.
Still, he appeals to many of reasons I thought would go into choosing this pope: 1. An appeal to both Americans and third world countries (many years a missionary). 2. Administrative experience and stability, 3. Hope for teachings rooted in Catholic identity (son of Augustine). 4. Dolan was the kingmaker: https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica/parolin-e-litalia-i-grandi-delusi-rimasto-senza-voti-africa-2476395.html
His family is from the South Side of Chicago. He’s French, Italian and Creole. He’s been mostly out of the country since the 80s. If you wanted to characterize him it would be as a Latin American populist, and perhaps still has the political categories/aspirations of a pre-1968 Catholic democrat, the kind that Kevin Phillips thought would migrate to America First republicanism.
On a wider geopolitical plane, between 2008 and 2015 I had several lunches and conversations with a Vatican official and with Cardinal George of Chicago. The topic of those conversations might give insight as to why Leo XIV chose his name and set the framework for his pontificate.
They told me that John Paul II decided early in his pontificate to align with the West and to “bring an end” to Soviet communism. This happened. In the late 1990s he was hoping to develop an updated critique of Western secularism. He was hoping American Catholic public intellectuals would help him to do this. In the Iraq war, he and many in the Vatican became disenchanted with the Bush regime and the American public Catholic intellectuals who opposed the Vatican’s efforts towards peace. So, the fuller statement following the Ten Commandments to critique the West never fully developed. Neither Popes Francis nor Benedict did this. It’s quite possible that Leo XIV took his name to signify that he will develop the teaching that John Paul II intended but never fully developed.
This article speaks to this effect. Its author might be aware of the desire coming from the Vatican going back to the 1990s. https://unherd.com/newsroom/pope-leo-xiv-heralds-a-renewal-of-catholic-social-justice/.
